Daily Market Update


Updated on July 15, 2024 10:07:49 AM EDT
Monday’s bond market has opened in negative territory as stocks rally. The Dow is currently up 184 points and the Nasdaq is up 140 points. The bond market is currently down 11/32 (4.22%), but gains in bonds late Friday should still allow this morning’s mortgage rates to be approximately .125 of a discount point lower than Friday’s early pricing.

There is no relevant economic data set for release today. This morning’s early weakness in bonds appears to be related to stocks moving higher after this weekend’s attempted assassination of former President Trump. It is difficult to explain how this would be good news other than saying some stock traders feel the incident will boost his chances of winning the election in November.

Fed Chairman Powell will be participating in a discussion at the Economic Club of Washington DC that will start at 12:30 PM ET today. We likely are not going to hear anything that contradicts what was said during his two days of congressional testimony last week. Still, his words can cause a strong reaction in the markets, so we need to be prepared for a possible surprise that could cause movement in the markets midday today.

The rest of the week brings us the release of four monthly economic reports for the markets to digest in addition to the Fed Beige Book and another Treasury auction that could affect afternoon trading one day. One of the economic releases is considered to be extremely important to the financial and mortgage markets, while the others are labeled moderately or of low importance.

Tomorrow has the major economic release scheduled. June's Retail Sales report will be posted at 8:30 AM ET, giving us a key measure of consumer spending. It is forecasted to show that retail-level sales slipped 0.1% last month. Because consumer spending makes up over two-thirds of the U.S. economy and bonds are more attractive during weaker economic conditions, this data is watched very closely. A larger decline would be good for mortgage rates.

The most active day for rates will likely be tomorrow due to the importance of the Retail Sales report. No other scheduled events this week come close to the influence that tomorrow’s report can have on rates. The calmest day may be Friday unless something unexpected happens. However, the markets can get active without notice, so it would be prudent to still keep an eye on them if closing in the near future and still floating an interest rate.


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